The Scenario of a Pandemic Spread of the Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is Based
on a Statistical Fallacy
Abstract
In view of the rapidly increasing numbers of reported new coronavirus
infections, many speak of an upcoming pandemic. However, since the
number of conducted coronavirus tests has rapidly increased over time as
well, the apparent increase in infections may actually reflect increased
testing, rather than a rapid spread of the coronavirus. To examine this
issue, data from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, and USA were
analyzed. In all countries, the rapid increase in reported new
infections was largely attributable to the rapid increase in conducted
tests. Statistically controlling for the increased amount of testing
revealed that the increases in reported infections dramatically
overestimate the true increases in every country. According to the
estimated true courses of new infections, the increases were initially
much smaller, and the courses of new infections have already flattened
or are even decreasing since the beginning of calendar week 13 (March
23) in almost all countries. The courses of reported new infections and
deaths started to increase almost simultaneously in every country, which
further confirms that the increases in reported new infections reflect
effects of increased testing. These results indicate that the scenario
of a coronavirus pandemic is based on a statistical fallacy.