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ScholarOne - Immigration without mediation: The reaction of Brazilians to an influx of Venezuelans
  • Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira
Raduan Eugenio Hussak van Velthem Meira
Washington University in St Louis

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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How does an immigration shock affect natives’ voting behavior? While many studies explore (a) natives’ attitudes toward immigrants and (b) the electoral appeals of anti-immigrant parties, much less is known about how immigration directly affects the electoral performance of incumbents. I argue that immigration will harm the incumbent. Natives in the regions exposed to immigration will feel anxious about the influx and, consequently, will change their voting behavior, leading them to punish the incumbent. This study examines the impact of immigration from Venezuela in 2018 on Brazil’s Workers’ Party (PT) electoral outcomes. I rely on an instrumental variable regression to causally identify the effect of the immigration shock and to show that it damaged the electoral performance of PT in most elections that were held just after the shock occurred. My results suggest that akin to other globalization shocks, heightened levels of immigration can elicit a political backlash
19 May 2023Submitted to Advance
15 Mar 2024Published in Advance