ScholarOne - Immigration without mediation: The reaction of Brazilians
to an influx of Venezuelans
Abstract
How does an immigration shock affect natives’ voting behavior? While
many studies explore (a) natives’ attitudes toward immigrants and (b)
the electoral appeals of anti-immigrant parties, much less is known
about how immigration directly affects the electoral performance of
incumbents. I argue that immigration will harm the incumbent. Natives in
the regions exposed to immigration will feel anxious about the influx
and, consequently, will change their voting behavior, leading them to
punish the incumbent. This study examines the impact of immigration from
Venezuela in 2018 on Brazil’s Workers’ Party (PT) electoral outcomes. I
rely on an instrumental variable regression to causally identify the
effect of the immigration shock and to show that it damaged the
electoral performance of PT in most elections that were held just after
the shock occurred. My results suggest that akin to other globalization
shocks, heightened levels of immigration can elicit a political backlash