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Forecasts in a disruptive environment by SARS-COV-2 in individual economic agents
  • Harnol Cáceres-Cáceres
Harnol Cáceres-Cáceres
Universidad Francisco de Paula Santander

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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A virus of the SARS family was incubated in late 2019 in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China (Munster et al., 2020, p. 1); in early 2020 the virus spread beyond Asia (Ahani & Nilashi, 2020), its epicenter of origin, and is now found in 173 countries (Dong et al., 2020) (Coronavirus Update (Live), 2020); declared a pandemic by the WHO in March 2020 (Adhanom, 2020), the virus has a mortality rate of 3% (Biscayart et al., 2020), mainly affecting older adults and children with a predisposition to acute respiratory diseases, diabetes and hypertension. (Yang et al., 2020, p. 6) The response of governments to this crisis was mostly to temporarily close their air and sea ports and borders (Yang et al., 2020, p. 10), to declare quarantine and in some cases to enact a state of emergency (Sohrabi et al., 2020) in order to mitigate the infection, which has affected the economy of developed countries and emerging economies (Arshad Ali et al., 2020) (McCloskey & Heymann, 2020) (Rosas Gonzalez, 2020) (Ahani& Nilashi, 2020) (Ayittey et al., 2020) (Economics, 2020), specifically to economic agents, such as companies, consumers, producers, exporters, investors, government entities, and their behavior developed in the face of this disruptive environment resulting from the Asian virus is the subject of this article. The methodology used is one of documentary review and compiles selected research literature and current financial and economic reports on the impact of the virus in a macro context and explores the different forecasts of specialized institutions in the world economy regarding the actions taken by governments. The document shows interest in the economic consequences of the impact of the pandemic and serves as a support to promote future actions to mitigate the effects of the post-crisis.