Abstract
This study explores the association between war, opium, and GDP per
capita in Afghanistan during wartime (1978–2022). The war has had a
positive impact on both opium cultivation and GDP per capita. A one-year
war with an average of 16,777 battle deaths increases opium cultivation
by 0.92% and GDP per capita by 1.04%. Similarly, external supporters
are predicted to increase opium cultivation by 1.86% and GDP per capita
by 0.28%. In addition, every 21 million population is estimated to
increase the likelihood of opium cultivation by 9.66% and reduce the
GDP per capita by 5.95%. Moreover, a 1% increase in each official
development aid and liberal democracy index increases the GDP per capita
by 0.62% and 0.49%, respectively. Arguably, the GDP per capita is
predicted to rise by 0.78% for every 142,000 hectares of opium
cultivation and to decrease by 0.25% for every 1% increase in the
executive corruption index