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ScholarOne - War, Opium, and Economic Growth in Afghanistan
  • Noorulhaq Ghafoori,
  • Chang Meng
Noorulhaq Ghafoori
Beijing Technology and Business University

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Chang Meng
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This study explores the association between war, opium, and GDP per capita in Afghanistan during wartime (1978–2022). The war has had a positive impact on both opium cultivation and GDP per capita. A one-year war with an average of 16,777 battle deaths increases opium cultivation by 0.92% and GDP per capita by 1.04%. Similarly, external supporters are predicted to increase opium cultivation by 1.86% and GDP per capita by 0.28%. In addition, every 21 million population is estimated to increase the likelihood of opium cultivation by 9.66% and reduce the GDP per capita by 5.95%. Moreover, a 1% increase in each official development aid and liberal democracy index increases the GDP per capita by 0.62% and 0.49%, respectively. Arguably, the GDP per capita is predicted to rise by 0.78% for every 142,000 hectares of opium cultivation and to decrease by 0.25% for every 1% increase in the executive corruption index
15 Jan 2024Submitted to Advance
03 Apr 2024Published in Advance