Abstract
Recent literature on the political economy of populism hypothesizes that
right-wing populist parties are “chameleons” that have no fixed
socioeconomic positions and frequently change their colors as an
electoral strategy. This paper deepens this inquiry by exploring not
policy positions, but - a much more difficult test - how European
right-wing populist parties in government affect macroeconomic outcomes
such as openness and spending. Compiling a novel dataset, we find no
consistent impact of incumbent right-wing populist parties in Europe on
macroeconomic outcomes over the period 1991-2018, in line with
expectations. However, in countries with pro-market left parties,
right-wing populist parties systematically influence government spending
and anti-globalization outcomes. The further left parties shift to the
right, the more right-wing populist parties in Europe appeal to their
working-class, anti-globalization electorate during this period.
Right-wing populist parties may be opportunistic, but not indeterminate
in their policy positions.