Forecasts in a disruptive environment by SARS-COV-2 in individual
economic agents
Abstract
A virus of the SARS family was incubated in late 2019 in Wuhan City,
Hubei Province, China (Munster et al., 2020, p. 1); in early 2020 the
virus spread beyond Asia (Ahani & Nilashi, 2020), its epicenter of
origin, and is now found in 173 countries (Dong et al., 2020)
(Coronavirus Update (Live), 2020); declared a pandemic by the WHO in
March 2020 (Adhanom, 2020), the virus has a mortality rate of 3%
(Biscayart et al., 2020), mainly affecting older adults and children
with a predisposition to acute respiratory diseases, diabetes and
hypertension. (Yang et al., 2020, p. 6) The response of governments to
this crisis was mostly to temporarily close their air and sea ports and
borders (Yang et al., 2020, p. 10), to declare quarantine and in some
cases to enact a state of emergency (Sohrabi et al., 2020) in order to
mitigate the infection, which has affected the economy of developed
countries and emerging economies (Arshad Ali et al., 2020) (McCloskey &
Heymann, 2020) (Rosas Gonzalez, 2020) (Ahani& Nilashi, 2020) (Ayittey
et al., 2020) (Economics, 2020), specifically to economic agents, such
as companies, consumers, producers, exporters, investors, government
entities, and their behavior developed in the face of this disruptive
environment resulting from the Asian virus is the subject of this
article. The methodology used is one of documentary review and compiles
selected research literature and current financial and economic reports
on the impact of the virus in a macro context and explores the different
forecasts of specialized institutions in the world economy regarding the
actions taken by governments. The document shows interest in the
economic consequences of the impact of the pandemic and serves as a
support to promote future actions to mitigate the effects of the
post-crisis.