From Moscow with a Mushroom Cloud? Russian Public Attitudes to the Use
of Nuclear Weapons in a Conflict with NATO
Abstract
This preprint presents findings of an original survey experiment on
public attitudes toward nuclear use conducted on a representative sample
of Russian citizens. We randomly assigned our participants to
experimental treatments with vignettes describing a military conflict
between Russia and NATO in the Baltics, where Moscow considered a
limited nuclear “escalate-to-deescalate” strike to avert defeat. Our
findings show that Russians are significantly more averse to nuclear
strikes than to the corresponding use of conventional missiles. The
participants disapproved similarly of a demonstrative nuclear explosion
in an unpopulated area and of nuclear strikes in a more escalated
scenario. We also found associations between the moral values of
individuals and strike support corresponding to earlier studies in the
United States. Finally, our participants reported similar concerns about
both nuclear and conventional strikes, with the worry about civilian
casualties and the suffering of victims at the top of the list across
experimental treatments.