Explaining Presidential Approval, 1993-2020: An Examination of the
Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump Presidencies
- Charles Ostrom,
- Alon Kraitzman
, - Brian Newman
Abstract
Can public support for recent presidents be explained by long-held
findings in the presidential approval literature? The presidencies, of
Clinton, George W. Bush, Obama, and Trump seem to counter the existing
literature, suggesting that recent approval ratings have become
disconnected from the political environment. We synthesize prior
scholarship on the environmental connection, salience, and economic
handling to develop a general model to evaluate approval during the
1992-2020 period. The model estimates show the environmental connection
remains intact. Looking at these four presidents together, we find the
public punished and rewarded presidents in a manner consistent with the
long-held findings of the literature. Even though each of these four
presidents served in unique circumstances, the foundation of the
public's approval remained consistent. Our results point to an enduring
environmental connection that holds presidents accountable for the
conditions of the day.