Preprints are early versions of research articles that have not been peer reviewed. They should not be regarded as conclusive and should not be reported in news media as established information.
Controlling the Hidden Growth of COVID-19
preprintposted on 2020-05-27, 20:23 authored by Bruce WangBruce Wang, Chaolun Ma
The COVID-19 pandemic has plagued the world for months. The U.S. has taken measures to counter it. On a daily basis, newly conﬁrmed cases have been reported. In the early days, these numbers showed an increasing trend. Recently, the numbers have been generally ﬂattened out. This report tries to estimate the hidden number of currently alive infections in the population by using the conﬁrmed cases. A major result indicates an existing infections estimate at about 10-50 times the daily conﬁrmed new cases, with the stringent social distancing policy tipping to the upper end of this range. It clariﬁes the relationship between the infection rate and the test rate to put the epidemic under control, which says that the test rate shall keep up at the same pace as infection rate to prevent an outbreak. This relationship is meaningful in the wake of business re-opening in the U.S. and the world. The report also reveals the connections of all the measures taken to the epidemic spread. A stratiﬁed sampling method is proposed to add to the current tool kits of epidemic control. Again, this report is a summary of some straight observations and thoughts, not through a thorough study backed with ﬁeld data. The results appear obvious and suitable for general education to interested policymakers and the public.
E.B. Snead ’25 Career Development Professor I fund through the Zachry Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Texas A&M University.
Declaration of conflicts of interestNA
Corresponding author firstname.lastname@example.org
Lead author country
- United States
Lead author job role
- Higher Education Faculty 4-yr College
Lead author institutionTexas A&M University
Ethics statementthe authors confirm that the materials used in the report follow the general ethics. The findings and ideas are original.
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